Political Polling: Being Right or Making Money

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/> [style="text-decoration: underline;">Ed. note: This post is authored by Evan Jowers and Robert Kinney of Kinney Recruiting, sponsor of the Asia Chronicles. Kinney has made more placements of U.S. associates and partners in Asia than any other firm in the past four years. You can reach them by email: asia at kinneyrecruiting dot com.]

Evan here. It continues to be a very busy year for lateral biglaw associate and partner hiring in Hong Kong / China. Further we have noticed that in HK, BJ and SHG there is more enthusiasm coming from US, UK and PRC firm partners, regarding the market, than we have seen since mid ’07. You can tell a big difference in enthusiasm by simply going to meetings in firm offices in those markets. Earlier this year, while it was a boom, there was optimism, but much more cautioned and guarded. Sure, the IPO boom at its current pace in China is not sustainable forever, but there is much less concern of a bubble burst or other type of economic downturn. Frankly, Hong Kong has become the market of choice for many major international companies and banks to have IPOs, with many choosing HK over NYC and London. Needless to say, US firms are going to be in and expand in HK / China for a long time. Offices are turning from outposts to much more substantial and strategic parts of US firms, globally.

Our Asia team is so busy, we have fallen behind on fully launching our new theasiachronicles.com blog and we apologize for that. Starting this weekend, we will have daily original posts, as promised (to go along with the numerous daily biglaw asia news posts).

For our readers in NYC who would like to meet us, please note that Robert and I will be in NYC again October 20 to 22. I will be back in China in a few weeks for meetings, as well as trying to catch the last days of the World Expo in Shanghai. Alexis is of course based in Hong Kong and Yuliya is based in Russia (not really Asia, but part of our Asia team nonetheless).id="more-40142">

Of course this is the time of year when our 2L law student readers are choosing where to summer. If you would like to talk about your firm choices, with regards to the firms’ Asia practices and offices, we are happy to speak with you. Feel free to reach out any time.

Here are, off the top of my head, some of the type of associate openings our Asia team is now working on for our law firm clients (we have in-house openings as well, but not listed here):

[please note that there are far more openings than what we happen to mention in this column. Please check them out at kinneyrecruiting.com/jobs or theasiachronicles.com/jobs, keeping in mind we don’t list cap markets / corporate openings multiple times if similar, and there are many of those]

Japanese speaking US cap markets associate – New York/> -One of our firm clients has an urgent need for a mid-level Japanese fluent US associate in their NYC cap markets practice. This position could be filled by someone in Tokyo who needs the two years practicing outside of Japan for certain qualifications, but who would want to be back in Tokyo in two years (this firm has a Tokyo office). Of course, it can be filled by a Japanese fluent associate already in NYC as well.

US cap markets associates – Hong Kong / China/> -many firms have this need (almost too many openings to count), with most requiring Mandarin fluency, but a few being ok with English only hires if the candidate is impressive enough. Due to the IPO boom in China continuing now for more than a year, along with US and UK firms all coming off hiring freezes by end ’09 / early ’10, there has been a lot of cap markets hiring in HK / China. Firms are still much more selective than in ’07 boom, but selectivity has fallen a bit recently, due to the amount of hiring occurring. Some firms will continue to require Mandarin fluency and take a look at candidates coming from less than top 10 US firms, whereas other firms will continue to focus on associates coming from top 10 firms, but drop requirement for Mandarin. Interestingly, M&A focused candidates coming from top 10 US firms can usually land cap markets positions, but not so much vice versa. If you are not coming from a top 10 or 20 US firm, it is a must to be fluent in Mandarin and you should expect a longer job search (as much as three to six + months, but you will land a spot in a market this hot, so don’t despair).

US M&A associates – Hong Kong / China/> -while M&A activity is noticeably picking up recently in China, it is still far behind cap markets deal flow at most firms. We are seeing an uptick in hiring for M&A groups, but it can still be difficult for an M&A focused associate to land an M&A focused spot at a top US or UK firm in HK / China. There is a lot of competition for these spots and the selectivity is much higher than with cap markets spots. With that said, we just made two such placements in HK in the past week, one PE / M&A focused and one general M&A, so they are happening.

Hong Kong qualified cap markets and M&A associates – Hong Kong/> -almost every US and UK firm with a HK local practice is now hiring HK qualified cap markets associates and many are also looking for M&A help. It is currently a recruiting war for such persons.

US Derivatives associate – Hong Kong/> -two of our law firm clients are interviewing for derivatives associates at mid-level. This is a rare type of opening in HK, and Asia in general, and it may be a while before both firms make such hires. Usually, derivatives background associates moving to Asia have to transition to more traditional corporate / cap markets practices in order to make the move.

US Funds Formation associates – Hong Kong, Beijing and Singapore/> -Four of our firm clients are looking for funds formation US associates, junior to mid-level. Two of those spots do not require Mandarin and English only is ok. Even in ’07 hiring boom, we did not see this many funds formation openings. Unlike in ’07, these groups can now be more selective and typically want someone with solid funds experience (in ’06 and ’07, such spots were being filled by those with little funds experience).

Korean speaking US corporate / cap markets associates – Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul/> -We are seeing a increase in Korea practice openings in Hong Kong, at US and UK firms, as well as there being a few top firms that seek a Korean fluent US corporate associate, but don’t have a Korea practice team. As usual, Korea firms in Seoul are interviewing US associates and a couple of our clients in Tokyo are interviewing Korean speakers (it is much easier to land in HK than Tokyo). Keep in mind that there is an abundance of solid Korean US associate candidates on the market, so firms are being very selective and not moving so quickly with hires. There is a lack of Korean background associates with stellar JD academics (many exist with solid academics and coming from solid firms) on the market, so if you fall in that fortunate category and are interested in lateral move in HK, you would be extremely marketable.

Project Finance US associates – Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo/> -A few of our firm clients in HK, Tokyo and Singapore have this need, at various seniority levels.

US corporate / cap markets associates – Tokyo/> -An increasing number of our firm clients in Tokyo are now hiring. Whereas in ’07, they were not always requiring Japanese, today they mostly are. However, firms are finding it very difficult to find Japanese fluent very well qualified US associates. It is an easy time for a Japanese fluent corporate / cap markets associate from a top US firm to land in Tokyo. Cap markets and M&A needed.

US corporate / cap markets associates – Singapore/> -While Singapore will never have nearly as many US associate openings as Hong Kong, it is in general and under-lawyered market and there are firms hiring. We made a number of Singapore placements earlier this year and the pace of hiring has slowed a bit there (firms moved quickly when coming off hiring freeze), but most US practices are very busy and there will be more hiring. In Singapore, while English only is obviously better in that market than other Asia markets, firms still look to find a connection to Singapore or reason for moving to Singapore in their candidates. Mandarin can be a nice bonus there, but not if the target firm is concerned the new hire will move to China in a year or two.

US acquisition finance associates – Hong Kong/> -Two of our firm clients are looking for this relatively rare type of US associate hire in Hong Kong, one a senior hire and one at the mid-level. Mandarin required.

US banking / finance associates – Hong Kong/> -A few of our firm clients in Hong Kong have banking / finance associate openings, at various levels. Mandarin required.

US IP transactional associate – Hong Kong/> -One of our firm clients has a mid-level to senior IP transactional associate need. This is a rare opening, although we expect IP openings to be a bit more common in 5 or so years in HK / China. Mandarin required.

US IP litigation / transactional associate – Tokyo/> -Two of our firm clients have this need, at various levels, in Tokyo. Japanese required.

US corporate associate, Indonesian background – Singapore/> -One of our firm clients in Singapore needs a US corporate associate with Indonesian background.

US corporate associates, Indian background – Singapore/> -A few of our firm clients in Singapore are building up their India practice and would prefer to hire US associates with Indian background, although that is not a requirement.

US cap markets associates – Sydney/> -Two of our firm clients in Sydney have US cap markets associate needs, at mid-level.

US cap markets / corporate associates – Moscow/> -A few of our clients are hiring in Moscow, although being extremely selective and requiring Russian.

US banking / finance corporate associate – Moscow/> -One of our firm clients in Moscow has an urgent banking / finance need at mid-level. Russian required.

Didn’t he once say he’d rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-termer? Well, the chances of a “really good” first term are pretty much shot, so I guess now it’s mediocrity or bust. Shoot for the stars, champ!

President Obama signaled today that he will seek reelection and dismissed as “completely unfounded” reports that he might replace Vice President Joe Biden on his 2012 ticket with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

“Obviously, I haven’t made any formal decision” on reelection, the president told National Journal in an exclusive 45-minute interview, “but I feel like I’ve got a lot of work left to do.”

Told that his answer sounded like he was saying “yes,” Obama nodded, then broadly smiled. “Take it as you will,” he said, laughing.

Obama bluntly dismissed suggestions, first raised by author Bob Woodward, that he might replace Biden with Clinton for the 2012 race.

Lest you think he’s bluffing, Axelrod is already starting to inch away from The One’s stance against Democratic outside groups with anonymous donors spending big money on elections. The old rule: No outside groups, please. The soon-to-be new rule: Yes, outside groups, please, but kindly disclose your contributors. As I said a few days ago, surely no one (including Harry Reid) found Sharron Angle’s mammoth third-quarter fundraising haul as frightening as the White House did, simply because it’s an early sign of how much money the conservative base will cough up in 2012 to knock Obama out of office. Axelrod will need all hands on deck to keep up, notwithstanding The One’s already legendary fundraising powers from 2008. So here’s his signal to lefty PACs to get in the game.

Even so, will it be enough? Mickey Kaus:

What comments [about voters being "scared"] suggest isn’t just that Obama will get clobbered in the midterms. It suggests that after he gets clobbered he won’t be able to adjust and turn the setback into a longterm victory the way Bill Clinton did. Clinton reacted to his 1994 midterm loss by acknowledging his opponents’ strongest arguments and pursuing a balanced budget and welfare reform. Obama seems more inclined to just tough it out until the economy recovers and the scared, confused voters become unscared and see the light. Meanwhile, he’ll spend his time in a protective cocoon.

A few weeks ago a right-wing reporter told me that worried Dem congresspersons who met with Obama left their meetings more worried than when they went in. I discounted the gossip, but now it’s beginning to ring true. We thought he was a great salesman. He turned out to be a lousy salesman. We thought he was a great politician. Instead he makes elementary mistakes and doesn’t learn from them. He didn’t know “shovel-ready” from a hole in the ground, and then somehow thinks admitting this ignorance without apology will add to his appeal.

I’d still defend most of the decisions Obama’s made, especially on health care refom. I’d rather have him making those decisions than 85% of the likely Republican candidates. But for the first time, he’s looking like a one-termer, even if the jobs start to come back.

It’s hard to imagine any incumbent losing if unemployment is trending downwards, especially after a sustained economic crisis, and it’s hard to imagine The One being so stupid as to stay in his liberal cocoon knowing that it would put the center of the electorate in play for 2012. Peter Beinart predicted a few weeks ago that Obama will actually tack left after the election on the theory that presidents tend to revert to campaign form when they get in trouble, but of course to hear David Brooks or Peggy Noonan or Kathleen Parker or Christopher Buckley tell it, Obama wasn’t a hard leftist during the campaign at all. He was an omnicompetent post-partisan pragmatist, eager to solve America’s problems by trying whatever would work. If he does revert to form, that’s the form he’ll revert to — which means he’ll try to make whatever deals he can with the new GOP House to push some compromise legislation through to pander to centrists. And then, if he gets reelected, he’ll govern as an even harder-left liberal in his second term. Good luck in 2012, moderate voters!

Exit question: If you were a lefty president terrified that your base of young voters will stay home on election day, which show would you appear on a few nights before to plead with them to go to the polls? Bingo.

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